Maine: Romney or Paul?

Public Policy Polling thinks about Maine:

Romney never led in any of the 3 Maine Republican polls we conducted. He was 2nd behind Herman Cain in October, 4th behind Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin in March, and 2nd behind Sarah Palin in October of 2010. All 3 of those polls made it clear Maine Republicans were looking for a more conservative alternative to Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum don't appear to have much or any organization in Maine and a lot of Maine's caucuses had already been held before the Santorum surge began though, so I don't know if that desire for an alternative will really end up showing in tomorrow's results.

All indications are that the main threat to Romney in Maine is Ron Paul. On one hand our last Maine poll found that Paul is not that popular with Maine Republicans- only 34% had a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative opinion. But that doesn't mean Paul can't win. For one thing if the 34% who do like Paul voted for him, that could certainly be a large enough percentage of the vote to give him a win. And the other thing is that the folks who like Paul, although they might be a minority of the electorate, are more likely to turn out for a caucus.