Maine: Romney or Paul?

Public Policy Polling thinks about Maine:

Romney never led in any of the 3 Maine Republican polls we conducted. He was 2nd behind Herman Cain in October, 4th behind Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin in March, and 2nd behind Sarah Palin in October of 2010. All 3 of those polls made it clear Maine Republicans were looking for a more conservative alternative to Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum don't appear to have much or any organization in Maine and a lot of Maine's caucuses had already been held before the Santorum surge began though, so I don't know if that desire for an alternative will really end up showing in tomorrow's results.

All indications are that the main threat to Romney in Maine is Ron Paul. On one hand our last Maine poll found that Paul is not that popular with Maine Republicans- only 34% had a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative opinion. But that doesn't mean Paul can't win. For one thing if the 34% who do like Paul voted for him, that could certainly be a large enough percentage of the vote to give him a win. And the other thing is that the folks who like Paul, although they might be a minority of the electorate, are more likely to turn out for a caucus.

Ohio and buyer's remorse

Public Policy Polling:

In 2010 Ohio voters elected a Republican Governor and went GOP in many House races, helping to elect a new Republican Speaker of the House from their state. Now they regret the Governor and don't like the Speaker. It's hard for me to imagine that buyer's remorse isn't going to work to the benefit of Barack Obama and other Democrats in the state this fall.

And:

The best word to describe first term Senator Rob Portman would be anonymous. 42% of voters have no opinion about him, the highest figure we've found for any sitting Senator. Anyone who claims that Portman would be a great running mate for Mitt Romney and help him win Ohio probably deserves a special honor for banal punditry.

That's a slap in the face, National Jorunal.

The Santorum Surge

The map after tonight's results:

What might a Rick Santorum surge look like by Super Tuesday?

538 analyzes Minnesota

538 discusses the sixth, second, and third Congressional districts and considers the prospects for each candidate.

Ron Paul’s base of support, and it is substantial in Minnesota, is harder to pinpoint geographically. He will do well in university towns of course, but he might also do well in the Iron Range and among the state’s farmers.

538 analyzes Colorado

538 reports:

The Republican Party’s base of support in Colorado is to the south and east of Denver. First, there are the Denver suburbs, where almost 40 percent of the state’s Republicans live, according to voter registration statistics compiled by Colorado’s Secretary of State’s office. In many ways, they are typical suburban Republicans: establishment friendly, fiscally focused and perhaps a little more moderate on social issues than Colorado Republicans farther to the south.

And:

Moving farther south from Denver, you approach El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located. This is the heartland of Colorado’s evangelical community. Focus on the Family is based here.

And:

El Paso County contains about 15 percent of Colorado’s registered Republicans, the largest share of any county. In addition to a heavy evangelical presence, the area includes significant military installations, like Fort Carson and Peterson Air Force Base.

Santorum captures Tea Party, Evangelical, and 'Very Conservative' constituencies that previously supported Gingrich

Public Policy Polling:

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

And:

There are three groups Santorum's winning in all three of these states: Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Those were groups that had previously been in Gingrich's column, but it appears right leaning Republican voters are shifting toward Santorum as their primary alternative to Romney. If Santorum does pick up 2 wins and a 2nd place finish tomorrow that trend is likely to be accelerated.

Coming soon: Colorado and Minnesota

Public Policy Polling has new polls out: Colorado:

Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota:

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

Santorum's future:

Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul. Given how quickly things have moved in this race I wouldn't assume Santorum still has that lead, especially given the momentum Romney has after big wins in Florida and Nevada. But nevertheless it looks like Santorum has a decent chance at wins in Minnesota and Missouri, and a second place finish in Colorado. 72 hours from now he may have supplanted Gingrich as the top alternative to Romney.

538 investigates Nevada

FiveThirty Eight describes the GOP landscape in Nevada.

Rural voters in Nevada have unique concerns, like the federal government’s management of local land (take for example the controversy over nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain).

In fact, many of the issues unique to Nevada revolve around what residents see as a meddling Washington bureaucracy. Nevadans, particularly in the rural areas, are steeped in individualism, limited government and low taxes (Nevada has no personal income tax).

And analyzes each of the candidate's chances:

However, Mr. Paul has outperformed his 2008 numbers in each of the first four states, sometimes by a considerable margin. If the same pattern holds in Nevada, he could easily get 25 percent of the vote or more.