Veterans love Ron Paul

Mother Jones:

Paul's anti-war stance is certainly part of the draw. Last weekend, the group Veterans for Ron Paul 2012 organized an anti-war President's Day march on the White House. That organization's leadership includes notable Iraq Veterans Against the War member Adam Kokesh, who unsuccessfully ran for Congress as a libertarian Republican candidate in 2010, and Jake Diliberto, a former Marine who's previously worked on Rethink Afghanistan, an anti-war project funded by the left-leaning Brave New Foundation. "I have always been a conservative, and I recognize that I am the kind of conservative that doesn't exist anymore," Diliberto told me. As for what unites servicemembers behind Paul, he said, "It is fair to say, we all do not like the current trajectory of US foreign policy, and we are cynical about US national security policy." He added that he's personally concerned about Obama's "targeted killing campaign" against alleged terrorists.

Bloggingheads' Carroll and Weigel discuss the primaries

A third-party candidate needs fame, money, qualifications and a constituency

The Washington Post:

Add it all up, and these contenders had one or more of the following: fame, money, political qualifications and a built-in constituency. Near as I can tell, every third-party presidential candidate who took 5 percent or more of the vote was reasonably well known before the campaign (Anderson became well known in losing the nomination). That’s not to say that Walker or Goode couldn’t possibly “succeed” in some way, but neither of them really fits the profile of past successful third-party candidates. The truth is that the way it really works most of the time is someone with a big ego and the resources to make it happen decides to run and probably then fills in whichever issues seem to resonate. Starting with the issues is pretty much getting the whole thing backward. If you want to push some set of issues, try to get a major party candidate to adopt them. It’s a lot easier.

The GOP primary map as it stands 2/23/11

Romney wins in areas where Mormons constitute a large chunk of the population and in the "liberal coasts." If the pattern continues, the map could look like this:

The pattern could change a couple ways:

• The South (Georgia in particular) could favor Gingrich, or Gingrich and Santorum could split the "conservative" vote providing Romney with an opportunity to win.
• Major metropolitan areas like Illinois and Dallas could pull their states toward Romney.
• Italian-Americans in New Jersey (17.9% of population), Rhode Island (19%) and Connecticut (18.6%) could relate to Santorum's backstory and turn out in greater numbers.

Michigan polls, polls, polls!

American Research Group: Santorum 38%, Romney 34%, Paul 12%, Gingrich 7%
[Santorum +4]

NBC News-Marist: Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 8%
[Romney +2]

Detroit Free Press-WXYZ-TV: Santorum 37%, Romney 34%
[Santorum +3]

Michigan Information & Research Service: Romney 32%, Santorum 30%, Paul 9%, Gingrich 7%
[Romney +2]

Mitchell Research and Rosetta Stone: Romney at 32%, Santorum at 30%
[Romney +2]

Rasmussen: Santorum 38% , Romney’s 34%, Paul 10%, Gingrich 9%
[Santorum +4]

Real Clear Politics: (average of other polls) Santorum 33.8%, Romney 33.2%
[Santorum +0.6]

Is anybody tracking Republican delegates?

The Campaign Spot:

A reminder of the official delegate count, as seen by the RNC: Mitt Romney 73, Newt Gingrich 29, Ron Paul 8, Perceived Frontrunner Rick Santorum 3, Jon Huntsman 2.

And:

The AP has Romney at 105, Santorum at 71, Gingrich at 29, Paul at 18, and Huntsman at 2.

Santorum ahead 11% in Washingon

Public Policy Polling:

At least for now it looks like it could give Rick Santorum some momentum headed into the critical March 6th contests. He leads there with 38% to 27% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 12% for Newt Gingrich.

A very small number of people are participating in the primaries

The Electoral Wasteland:

Less than 1 percent of registered voters turned out for Maine’s caucus. In Nevada, where Republican turnout was down 25 percent from 2008, only 3 percent of total registered voters participated.

This is not majority rule by any measure; it barely qualifies as participatory democracy.

The electability/competency of Rick Santorum

The Dish brings out three experts.

Steve Kornacki of Salon:

He’s a genuinely competent candidate. Not dazzling, but competent. He’s in line with the party base on just about every key issue, doesn’t have much personal baggage, can think on his feet in debates, and deliver a solid stump speech. This is more than can be said for Gingrich, Rick Perry and Herman Cain. This may be Santorum’s best hope: that the desire of the party base to nominate someone other than Romney is so strong that this basic competency is enough to overcome all of the advantages that Romney still enjoys.

Why does Ron Paul attact young voters?

The Dish analyzes:

But above all, I think it's his foreign policy. The post-9/11 generation has seen what war has achieved - virtually nothing but the death of a hundred thousand Iraqis, 5,000 Americans and tens of thousands of maimed and injured vets - and believe the wars were huge errors. They also rightly understand that the world has changed thanks to globalization of capitalism, and see the Cold War mentality of America policing the planet to be at least condescending, and at worst utterly counter-productive and unaffordable. They see their retirement savings disappearing to fuel neocon fantasies of permanent war.

Samtorum appeals to a different kind of swing voter

NYmag:

Santorum has attracted a terrible reputation among the overclass. He is defined by his crude, bigoted social conservatism, which colors the broader perception of him as an extremist. This in turn leeches out into a sense, often reflected in news coverage, which likewise reflects the social biases of the overclass, that Santorum is a fringe candidate who would repel swing voters.

In fact, there are, very roughly speaking, two kinds of swing voters. One kind is economically conservative, socially liberal swing voters. This is the kind of voter you usually read about, because it’s the kind most familiar to political reporters – affluent and college educated. But there’s a second kind of voter at least as numerous – economically populist and socially conservative. Think of disaffected blue-collar workers, downscale white men who love guns, hate welfare, oppose free trade, and want higher taxes on the rich and corporations. Romney appeals to the former, but Santorum more to the latter.

Michigan: Santorum 39% Romney 24%

Public Policy Polling:

Rick Santorum's taken a large lead in Michigan's upcoming Republican primary. He's at 39% to 24% for Mitt Romney, 12% for Ron Paul, and 11% for Newt Gingrich.

This race is serious now!

Where will Gingrich voters go if he drops out?

Public Policy Polling:

If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul.

Romney is "severely" unable to relate to conservatives

Hot Air analyzes his rhetoric:

The takeaway line emerges at 14:15 when he describes himself — the architect of RomneyCare, remember — as having been … a “severely conservative Republican governor.” The awkwardness of that phrase is Romney’s whole candidacy in a nutshell. The word “severely” is almost always used colloquially in a pejorative or clinical sense (“severely unhappy,” “severely handicapped”), yet he’s using it here in a boastful way, as if to say that he can be as strident and unreasonable as he thinks the crowd needs him to be to give them comfort on his ideological bona fides as nominee. I go back and forth between being annoyed that a guy as intelligent as he is can’t even fake his identification with the right more effectively and feeling sympathy for him that he can’t connect with his audience on a gut level. That’s a tremendous retail disability for a politician and it must cause Romney no little agony, but he limps on towards the nomination regardless. If he ends up winning in spite of it, even with all his other advantages it’ll be an achievement.

Four factors align for third-party candidate's win

A reader at The Dish:

A survey of applicable academic research establishes that the success of an independent presidential candidate primarily depends on four factors: (1) whether the candidate’s campaign is well-funded; (2) the degree to which voters have grown cynical and politically-alienated; (3) whether voters like, i.e., feel warmly towards, the Democratic and Republican candidates; and (4) whether voters like the independent candidate.  While one cannot profess to be able to accurately predict the future, it appears likely that, in 2012, these drivers of independent voting behavior will align in an unprecedented manner that could propel an independent presidential candidate to unexpected heights.

Will Romney's anti-bailout stance hurt his chances in Michigan?

Reuters:

Now, with Romney desperate for a win in Michigan's primary on February 28, he will have to explain to voters why later in 2008, he called for the U.S. government to stand aside as auto companies at the brink of insolvency begged for help.

Obama's side:

Obama and top administration officials have made frequent trips to Michigan to tout the revitalization, arguably their top economic accomplishment. "It's good to remember the fact that there were some folks who were willing to let this industry die," Obama said last week, in an apparent jab at Romney.

Romney's side:

The Romney campaign has stuck to its guns, arguing that the administration would have saved billions of dollars if it had followed Romney's advice. "Events have proved Governor Romney exactly right," campaign spokeswoman Amanda Henneberg said. "It is unfortunate that the government first attempted a bailout, which was precisely as unsuccessful as he predicted, cost taxpayers billions, and left the government improperly entangled in the private sector."

Maine: Romney or Paul?

Public Policy Polling thinks about Maine:

Romney never led in any of the 3 Maine Republican polls we conducted. He was 2nd behind Herman Cain in October, 4th behind Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin in March, and 2nd behind Sarah Palin in October of 2010. All 3 of those polls made it clear Maine Republicans were looking for a more conservative alternative to Romney. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum don't appear to have much or any organization in Maine and a lot of Maine's caucuses had already been held before the Santorum surge began though, so I don't know if that desire for an alternative will really end up showing in tomorrow's results.

All indications are that the main threat to Romney in Maine is Ron Paul. On one hand our last Maine poll found that Paul is not that popular with Maine Republicans- only 34% had a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative opinion. But that doesn't mean Paul can't win. For one thing if the 34% who do like Paul voted for him, that could certainly be a large enough percentage of the vote to give him a win. And the other thing is that the folks who like Paul, although they might be a minority of the electorate, are more likely to turn out for a caucus.

The primary race is not "over" - and won't be for a while

I first must thank Weigel for pointing this out:

Political reporters make for lousy gravediggers. Find a primary, pick a day, and I can point you to a story pronouncing the campaign “over” or “almost over” or over, pending the judgment of a proverbial Fat Lady.

The important part of his article:

We know the race will last to April thanks to pure, heartless algebra. The 2012 Republican nominee will need to win 1,144 delegates. The number of delegates semi-officially pledged to candidates as I type this out: 161. The number of delegates that will be pledged by the end of Super Tuesday, one month from now: 662. Rick Santorum could take every single delegate away from Mitt Romney (Good luck in Massachusetts!) and be barely halfway to the nomination.

It feels slower than the last primary. Because it’s much, much slower. A catastrophic and months-long leap-frog competition forced 21 states into 2008 Super Tuesday primaries or caucuses. By Feb. 5, 2008, 1,069 of the GOP’s delegates—41 percent of the total—had been chosen. It was a fluke, no one wanted it to happen again, but it turned out like a childhood trauma in reverse. So much fun was had, the “this can wrap up in a hurry” concept stuck around.

Pawlenty's endorsement of Romney turned out to be worthless

The Corner:

His endorsement delivered nothing. Romney finished third in Minnesota — a distant third, no less. So if Romney wins the nomination, will anybody say that choosing Pawlenty for veep will turn Minnesota from Democratic blue to Republican red? Not after what just happened.

I still think Pawlenty is Romney's logical number-one choice. I never said it would be a winning ticket.

Ohio and buyer's remorse

Public Policy Polling:

In 2010 Ohio voters elected a Republican Governor and went GOP in many House races, helping to elect a new Republican Speaker of the House from their state. Now they regret the Governor and don't like the Speaker. It's hard for me to imagine that buyer's remorse isn't going to work to the benefit of Barack Obama and other Democrats in the state this fall.

And:

The best word to describe first term Senator Rob Portman would be anonymous. 42% of voters have no opinion about him, the highest figure we've found for any sitting Senator. Anyone who claims that Portman would be a great running mate for Mitt Romney and help him win Ohio probably deserves a special honor for banal punditry.

That's a slap in the face, National Jorunal.

Romney's frontrunner status depends on the Michigan primary

from Commentary Magazine:

The irony for Romney is that of all the upcoming primaries, Michigan may be the best suited to respond positively to Santorum’s paean to rust belt values. Romney’s inability to connect with both conservatives and ordinary voters has handicapped him throughout the race, but in Michigan, with its depressed economy and dependence on the auto industry, it is as much of a hindrance as in the general election. Michigan, with its high unemployment and working class electorate, provides Santorum with a receptive audience for his own version of class warfare politics.

2012 is not about jobs, it's about the culture war

Business Insider analyzes:

Everyone thought that the 2012 election would be about jobs, jobs, jobs.

They were wrong.

First corporate profits went up. The market has been strong for almost two months. Unemployment is falling. And there are even signs of life in the housing industry.

Yes, America still has long term debt problems. And Americans are saddled with lots of household debt.

But the last three weeks prove that what gets Americans really fired up is the culture war.

Yesterday we saw the 9th Circuit Court overrule the popular referendum in California that banned gay marriage. Rick Santorum, who defined his career in the Senate as the point man for conservatives in the culture war is suddenly surging in the GOP nomination contest. The nation and its media had a week-long freakout over a minuscule $700,000 grant from the Komen Foundation to Planned Parenthood. And now the Obama Administration and the Catholic Church are in open conflict over whether religious institutions should be dragged into the bedroom to pay for their employees' contraceptives of choice.

Who are the Obama Independents?

The Third Way reports:

The Obama Independents are practically a mirror image of America, while the McCain Independents mirror Idaho.4 McCain Independents are almost exclusively white, with a small slice of Latino voters. By contrast, 74% of Obama Independents are white, with near parity in every category to the electorate as a whole.

In short, they are idealogically moderate, were hit hard by the recession early on, are younger, are slightly more female, and are less likely to attend religious services.

The Santorum Surge

The map after tonight's results:

What might a Rick Santorum surge look like by Super Tuesday?

538 analyzes Minnesota

538 discusses the sixth, second, and third Congressional districts and considers the prospects for each candidate.

Ron Paul’s base of support, and it is substantial in Minnesota, is harder to pinpoint geographically. He will do well in university towns of course, but he might also do well in the Iron Range and among the state’s farmers.

538 analyzes Colorado

538 reports:

The Republican Party’s base of support in Colorado is to the south and east of Denver. First, there are the Denver suburbs, where almost 40 percent of the state’s Republicans live, according to voter registration statistics compiled by Colorado’s Secretary of State’s office. In many ways, they are typical suburban Republicans: establishment friendly, fiscally focused and perhaps a little more moderate on social issues than Colorado Republicans farther to the south.

And:

Moving farther south from Denver, you approach El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located. This is the heartland of Colorado’s evangelical community. Focus on the Family is based here.

And:

El Paso County contains about 15 percent of Colorado’s registered Republicans, the largest share of any county. In addition to a heavy evangelical presence, the area includes significant military installations, like Fort Carson and Peterson Air Force Base.

Starting in around 2000, Democrat and Republican partisans began seeing the economy differently

The Washington Post:

Santorum captures Tea Party, Evangelical, and 'Very Conservative' constituencies that previously supported Gingrich

Public Policy Polling:

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today's contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He's at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

And:

There are three groups Santorum's winning in all three of these states: Tea Partiers, Evangelicals, and those describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Those were groups that had previously been in Gingrich's column, but it appears right leaning Republican voters are shifting toward Santorum as their primary alternative to Romney. If Santorum does pick up 2 wins and a 2nd place finish tomorrow that trend is likely to be accelerated.

Super PACs are really changing the presidential race

The Christian Science Monitor reports:

Two years ago, that money bomb would have been illegal. Now, it's a prominent feature of Campaign 2012, in which unlimited sums of money donated to "super political-action committees" – not directly to a candidate's own campaign – can, in an instant, reset the odds for a race.

So far, these outside groups – super PACs, for short – have collectively spent $40.9 million to influence 2012 presidential and congressional races. That's twice what had been spent by outside groups at the same point in the 2008 campaign cycle, when both parties had competitive presidential nominating races, according to the Center for Responsive Politics in Washington.

Economic growth can make or break new democracies

Dart-Throwing Chimp does the math:

I’ll wrap this post up by going back to where we started, namely, the Middle East after the “Arab awakening.” Even though GDP growth doesn’t contribute much to it, the model’s overall performance isn’t bad. After looking at those ROC curves, I wondered what the model would say about the prospects for the survival of new democracies in three Arab countries on the cusp of new tries at democracy: Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya. Of the three, only Tunisia would already qualify as democratic by my definition, but Egypt and Libya are both in the midst of transitions from authoritarian rule that could put them over the threshold soon. So I took the IMF’s latest projections of their growth rates and plugged them into the model, along with recent data on their levels of economic development and my best guess as to whether or not they would qualify as acutely polarized according to the data set I used for that indicator. Here’s what came back as estimates of the probability that each of those new democracies would make it to their sixth birthday, assuming that, of the three, only Tunisia would not qualify as acutely polarized:

■Tunisia: 82%
■Egypt: 48%
■Libya: 89%

Is the Tea Party dead?

The Daily Beast asks:

“The Tea Party movement is dead. It’s gone,” says Chris Littleton, the cofounder of the Ohio Liberty Council, a statewide coalition of Tea Party groups in Ohio. “I think largely the Tea Party is irrelevant in the primaries. They aren’t passionate about any of the candidates, and if they are passionate, they’re for Ron Paul.”

Should Romney open up about his religion?

CBS News advises:

What ought to interest us about Romney's faith are not the vagaries of Mormon theology, fascinating as they are, but how he understands that theology, how his faith informs the way he lives, his sense of responsibility toward others and how that might affect the way he governs.

Granted, there are relevant political questions peculiar to Mormon teaching. The Latter-day Saints, for example, teach that the United States Constitution is divinely inspired. It's fair to ask Romney how that affects his understanding of the Constitution. Although Mormons are hardly the only group that claims to be the "true" religion, how does that teaching inflect Romney's notions about pluralism and toleration? But the more pertinent question applies to all presidential candidates who make declarations of faith: How does religion shape your policies? Unfortunately, Romney has remained studiously tight-lipped about all matters of faith, referring only vaguely to "my church."

How conservative/moderate/liberal is your state?

From Gallup:

"The era of caucuses must come to an end."

National Review covers lingering issues with the Nevada caucuses:

Part of the trouble was some Paul supporters told voters they could show up for the late-night caucus for whatever reason. But voters could only participate if they signed a declaration affirming that they couldn’t vote during the regular morning caucuses because of their faith. Clark County GOP chair David Gibbs says it’s up to voters to be honest.

And:

Fox News reports that in some precincts, there are disputes because of more ballots cast than people signed up for that precinct.

The author Jim Gerahty concludes:

The era of caucuses must come to an end.

Hear, hear!

Obama has more small-check donors

Reuters reports:

Financial disclosures last week showed Obama's campaign in 2011 raised 60 percent of funds, or $58.5 million, from donors who gave less than $200. The average listed donation to the Obama campaign in the last three months of the year was between $100 and $200, according to a Reuters analysis of the Federal Election Commission filings.

Compare to Rommey:

The campaign of the Republican front-runner Mitt Romney in 2011 raised only 9 percent of its total funds, or $5.2 million, from donors who gave less than $200, FEC filings show. The average listed donation was between $900 and $1,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to the Reuters analysis.

Coming soon: Colorado and Minnesota

Public Policy Polling has new polls out: Colorado:

Mitt Romney looks primed for another big Western win to match his  one in Nevada. He leads with 40% there to 26% for Rick Santorum, 18% for Gingrich, and 12% for Ron Paul.

Minnesota:

Minnesota looks like a toss up with any of the four candidates having some shot at winning. Santorum holds a small edge there with 29% to 27% for Romney, 22% for Gingrich, and 19% for Paul.

Santorum's future:

Tuesday has the potential to be a big day for Rick Santorum. In addition to these two polls, a Missouri survey we conducted last weekend found him with 45% to 34% for Romney and 13% for Paul. Given how quickly things have moved in this race I wouldn't assume Santorum still has that lead, especially given the momentum Romney has after big wins in Florida and Nevada. But nevertheless it looks like Santorum has a decent chance at wins in Minnesota and Missouri, and a second place finish in Colorado. 72 hours from now he may have supplanted Gingrich as the top alternative to Romney.

What are the odds of Democrats gaining a majority in the House?

The Wall Street Journal reports:

For all the Republican wins in 2010, Mr. Boehner presides over a modest 25-seat majority. Redistricting has not turned out to be the giant boon some Republicans thought it might be, and the party is playing to beat about 20 sitting Democrats and to win about a half-dozen open seats. But here's the number that counts: An estimated 55 Republican seats are competitive—i.e., at risk—this year.

That includes many of the 89 freshmen who washed into the House in 2010. Those new members bring high enthusiasm, but over the past 30 years parties have lost on average 10% of their rookies in their first re-election effort. If Mr. Boehner bats the average, he's nine down at the start.

How will Romney respond to an improving economy?

MySanAntonio:

And it presents Mitt Romney, the perceived front-runner for the Republican nomination, with a difficult choice: whether to embrace a new optimism about jobs or to continue waging a campaign based on the premise that angry voters will blame Obama for a sinking economy.

The U.S. and the "nightmare" of hard-line Islamic regimes

KurdishGlobe reports:

Since the rise of massive political upheaval in the Arab world, and the fall of dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and most recently Yemen, the process of regime change is likely to continue, and it seems Syria is next in line. While this massive political turmoil and eventual regime changes can be interpreted as a rise of political consciousness and pro-democracy movements in the Arab world, since the early stages, the U.S. has shown deep concern that developments in the most volatile region of the world could change the political landscape of the Arab and Muslim world from Morocco to Malaysia. Nevertheless, U.S. officials have hesitated to openly discuss the gravity and threat of hijacking Arab revolutions by the hard-line Islamic groups who would bring an anti-Western atmosphere in the region. Even from point of view of people in the region, the dream of achieving freedom and political representation seems to be doomed and the new political groups that took over from ousted dictators are overwhelmed by the massive rise of radical Islam and religious fundamentalism.

Russia and China veto Syria peace plan

NYT reports:

The Security Council voted 13 to 2 in favor of a resolution backing an Arab League peace plan for Syria, but the measure was blocked by Russia and China, which opposed what they saw as a potential violation of Syria’s sovereignty. The support of those countries has proven crucial in bolstering the Syrian government’s confidence, despite an isolation more pronounced than any time since the Assad family seized power more than four decades ago.

538 investigates Nevada

FiveThirty Eight describes the GOP landscape in Nevada.

Rural voters in Nevada have unique concerns, like the federal government’s management of local land (take for example the controversy over nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain).

In fact, many of the issues unique to Nevada revolve around what residents see as a meddling Washington bureaucracy. Nevadans, particularly in the rural areas, are steeped in individualism, limited government and low taxes (Nevada has no personal income tax).

And analyzes each of the candidate's chances:

However, Mr. Paul has outperformed his 2008 numbers in each of the first four states, sometimes by a considerable margin. If the same pattern holds in Nevada, he could easily get 25 percent of the vote or more.